46th Canadian federal election: government formation under asymmetric leader momentum
Which party forms government in the 46th Canadian federal election given leader approval trends, seat-efficiency dynamics, minority timing risk, and Canada–US trade shocks?
Context
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2026-02-15T05:40
{'date': '2026-02-12', 'government_status': 'Liberal minority under PM Mark Carney', 'confidence_stability': 'Fragile but currently stable; opposition fragmented', 'polling_snapshot_range': {'LPC': '39–41%', 'CPC': '33–36%', 'NDP': '12–14%', 'BQ': '6–8%', 'GPC': '2–4%'}, 'leader_momentum': {'Carney': {'trajectory': 'Rising approval since assuming leadership', 'strengths': ['Economic credibility', 'Calm leadership under trade pressure', 'Strong preferred-PM advantage'], 'weaknesses': ['Housing delivery pace', 'Perception of technocratic distance', 'Incumbent accountability drag']}, 'Poilievre': {'trajectory': 'Declining net favourability over past 6–8 months', 'strengths': ['Core base intensity', 'Cost-of-living attack messaging'], 'weaknesses': ['Suburban Ontario slippage', 'Softening among women and older voters', 'Less trusted on trade diplomacy']}}, 'structural_forces': ['Housing supply lag remains unresolved', 'Healthcare strain continues provincially', 'Productivity stagnation narrative', 'Carbon price no longer central issue', 'US trade pressure elevates sovereignty framing'], 'seat_efficiency': {'LPC': 'More efficiently distributed vote in GTA, Atlantic, urban BC', 'CPC': 'Vote concentrated in Prairies; must flip Ontario 905 to win majority', 'BQ': 'High Quebec seat conversion efficiency', 'NDP': 'Low efficiency under current vote share'}}
Agents
Liberal Party (LPC) — Mark Carney
Conservative Party (CPC) — Pierre Poilievre
New Democratic Party (NDP)
Bloc Québécois (BQ)
External Trade Shock (US Pressure)
Options
- {'id': 'LPC_majority', 'description': 'Liberals convert leader momentum and Ontario efficiency into 172+ seats', 'base_probability': 0.34}
- {'id': 'LPC_minority', 'description': 'Liberals win plurality under 172 seats; govern with NDP/issue support', 'base_probability': 0.36}
- {'id': 'CPC_minority', 'description': 'Conservatives recover Ontario ground; narrow plurality', 'base_probability': 0.17}
- {'id': 'CPC_majority', 'description': 'Conservatives reverse favourability trend and sweep Ontario battlegrounds', 'base_probability': 0.08}
- {'id': 'unstable_bargaining', 'description': 'Highly fragmented result; prolonged confidence brinkmanship', 'base_probability': 0.05}
Runs: 250 · Horizon: 12 months
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