Preconfigured scenario
46th Canadian federal election: government formation under asymmetric leader momentum
Which party forms government in the 46th Canadian federal election given leader approval trends, seat-efficiency dynamics, minority timing risk, and Canada–US trade shocks?
This demo uses a fixed scenario with current public inputs so you can review the flow, read the output, and inspect the branches before creating your own workspace.
Runtime
LOW
Actors
5
Outcome paths
5
Run profile
1000
Context
stale AI cache
2026-04-03T09:14
Status
Liberal minority under PM Mark Carney
Stability
Fragile but currently stable; opposition fragmented
Polls
LPC 42.4% (PollsterAudit, 2026-03-30)
CPC 36.7% (PollsterAudit, 2026-03-30)
NDP 9.3% (PollsterAudit, 2026-03-30)
BQ 6.5% (PollsterAudit, 2026-03-30)
GPC 2.9% (PollsterAudit, 2026-03-30)
Forces
- Housing supply lag remains unresolved
- Healthcare strain continues provincially
- Productivity stagnation narrative
- Carbon price no longer central issue
- US trade pressure elevates sovereignty framing
Seat efficiency
LPC: More efficiently distributed vote in GTA, Atlantic, urban BC
CPC: Vote concentrated in Prairies; must flip Ontario 905 to win majority
BQ: High Quebec seat conversion efficiency
NDP: Low efficiency under current vote share
Carney
Rising approval since assuming leadership
Strengths: Economic credibility, Calm leadership under trade pressure, Strong preferred-PM advantage
Weaknesses: Housing delivery pace, Perception of technocratic distance, Incumbent accountability drag
Poilievre
Declining net favourability over past 6–8 months
Strengths: Core base intensity, Cost-of-living attack messaging
Weaknesses: Suburban Ontario slippage, Softening among women and older voters, Less trusted on trade diplomacy
Agents
5 modeled actors in this scenario.
Liberal Party (LPC) — Mark Carney
Conservative Party (CPC) — Pierre Poilievre
New Democratic Party (NDP)
Bloc Québécois (BQ)
External Trade Shock (US Pressure)
Options
5 paths the stress-test will compare.
- Liberals convert leader momentum and Ontario efficiency into 172+ seats
- Liberals win plurality under 172 seats; govern with NDP/issue support
- Conservatives recover Ontario ground; narrow plurality
- Conservatives reverse favourability trend and sweep Ontario battlegrounds
- Highly fragmented result; prolonged confidence brinkmanship
Safety checks
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