ARS
The reality simulation engine for high-stakes decisions.
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Simulate the consequences before you commit.

ARS is a multi-engine reality simulation platform. It runs Monte Carlo stress-tests, game-theoretic competitive models, network diffusion, and cross-domain world models so you can see how a decision plays out across markets, teams, reputations, and policies before you make it.

Founders Political candidates Policy analysts Executives Investors Researchers Campaign strategists City planners
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Political campaign
Should we go negative in the final 3 weeks?
Simulate voter sentiment diffusion, opponent retaliation, media cycles, and donor reaction across 500+ Monte Carlo runs. See which timeline protects your favorability floor.
Network diffusion Game theory Agent social
Startup founder
Raise a bridge round or cut burn to reach profitability?
Model runway safety, team churn, competitor pressure, and investor sentiment month-by-month. Identify the exact stress thresholds that separate a breakout from a shutdown spiral.
System dynamics Econometric market Competitive game
City policy lab
What happens if we upzone three transit corridors?
Couple housing supply models with commute-time elasticity, small-business displacement, and voter approval dynamics. Stress-test the policy across economic downturn and boom scenarios.
System dynamics Network diffusion Econometric market
Executive pricing
Raise our SaaS price 30% or introduce a usage tier?
Run price-demand elasticity, churn cascades, competitor response games, and reputation diffusion. Get a decision memo with leading indicators and pre-committed trigger-based pivots.
Econometric market Competitive game Agent social
Investor diligence
Does this portfolio company survive a 6-month sales cycle freeze?
Stress-test a company's operating model against market headwinds, key-person churn, and competitive compression. Surface the causal chains that separate resilience from collapse.
System dynamics Discrete event Competitive game
Health & productivity
Should I restructure my schedule around a 4-day work week?
Model the feedback loop between sleep quality, cognitive performance, execution velocity, stress accumulation, and long-term health risk. See how a routine change propagates across 12 months.
Health progression System dynamics Agent social
Nonprofit / advocacy
Launch a grassroots campaign or a targeted corporate partnership?
Simulate reputation diffusion, donor fatigue, volunteer churn, and media cycle dynamics. Compare which strategy builds durable support vs. short-term visibility.
Network diffusion Agent social System dynamics
M&A / corporate strategy
Acquire the competitor or build the capability in-house?
Model integration risk, team morale shocks, market share dynamics, and competitive retaliation. See which branches lead to value creation and which trigger culture collapse.
Competitive game System dynamics Discrete event

What the simulation engine does

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Monte Carlo stress-tests
Run 50-2000 trials per option. See success probability, crash risk, and the distribution of outcomes across every branch.
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Game-theoretic competition
Model how competitors, opponents, or adversaries respond to your moves with strategic retaliation dynamics.
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Cross-domain world model
Coupled simulation kernels link markets, teams, reputation, policy, and health into a single coherent world state.
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Network & reputation diffusion
Track how trust, narrative, and belief cascades propagate through social and market networks over time.
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Causal counterfactuals
See exactly what must be true for each outcome. Get influence maps and the causal chains behind success and failure.
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Decision memos & action plans
Every branch produces a memo with top risks, leading indicators, trigger thresholds, pre-mortem, and a Monday action plan.
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Multi-fidelity pipeline
Coarse exploration, refined deep-dives, then forensic analysis. The engine narrows automatically to the branches that matter.
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Calibration & track record
Log real outcomes against predictions. Build a personal Brier score, calibration curve, and accuracy timeline over time.
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Safety & guardrails
Subscription-based limits, fairness checks, red-team harness, PII detection, and restricted-domain filters built in from day one.

You describe the decision

Scenario & context
What is happening, who is involved, what counts as success or failure.
Options (2+)
Concrete choices: pricing moves, policy changes, campaign strategies, hiring plans.
Agents & stakeholders
Competitors, voters, customers, regulators, team members with risk profiles and goals.
World model plan
Pick a preset (Startup, Policy Lab, Health Twin) or customize which simulation kernels run.

The engine returns

Branching futures
Clustered outcome timelines (Breakout, Steady Climb, Crash) with probabilities and representative paths.
Decision memos per branch
Top risks, leading indicators, trigger thresholds, pre-mortem, mitigations, and a weekly action plan.
Causal influence maps
Which drivers cause success or failure and the exact thresholds where outcomes flip.
World Model OS output
Full world state graph, intervention trace, cross-domain coupling, counterfactual versioning, and planner output.

Pricing

Every plan starts with a 3-day free trial. Cancel anytime.
Standard
$9.99 / month
Full simulation engine, up to 1,200 runs per scenario, all 7 simulation kernels, calibration tracking, and standard plan limits.
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Pro
Pro
$39.99 / month
Everything in Standard, plus up to 2,500 runs, high-stakes scenario access, deeper forensics, and priority support.
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